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By David Blair in New Delhi
India has constructed a naval base within striking
distance of the Straits of Malacca, which serves as a
conduit for China's imported oil.
The Straits of Malacca, where the Indian Ocean joins the
Pacific, is seen as China's Achilles heel. These
shipping lanes, vital for Beijing's energy supplies,
could be the setting for any future confrontation
between India and China.
The two giant powers are longstanding rivals, who share
a disputed 2,100-mile border and are waging a diplomatic
struggle for influence in Asia. They fought a border war
in 1962, which ended in victory for China and left
Beijing in control of 16,500 square miles of territory
claimed by India.
Both countries are now increasing their defence budgets,
with India's military spending rising by an average of
18 per cent in each of the last three years and now
exceeding £15 billion.
If these tensions were ever to boil over into war once
again, India would probably exploit a crucial advantage.
Its navy, which eventually plans to deploy three
aircraft carriers and two nuclear-powered attack
submarines, would probably seek to close the Straits of
Malacca to Chinese shipping. By cutting off the supply
of oil, this could cripple China and prove the decisive
move in any conflict.
"The most likely flashpoint would be along the border,
but ultimately the decision in any war would be on the
ocean," said Sheru Thapliyal, a retired Indian general
in New Delhi who once commanded a division on the
frontier with China.
"The Indian Ocean is where we could use our advantage to
the maximum. If you want to choke China, the only way
you can choke China is by using naval power."
With China's key vulnerability in mind, India has
constructed a naval base within striking distance of the
Straits of Malacca at Port Blair on the Andaman Islands.
China has countered by installing military facilities of
its own, complete with electronic monitoring and
eavesdropping devices, on the nearby Coco Islands. These
specks of land belong to Burma, a longstanding ally of
China.
Beijing is now taking other steps to address what
President Hu Jintao has called the country's "Malacca
dilemma". With hugely ambitious infrastructure projects,
China hopes to bypass the Straits of Malacca and
eventually end its dependence on this vulnerable
waterway for energy supplies.
On India's western flank, China is helping to build a
new port in the Pakistani town of Gwadar. Thrust
together by their shared rivalry with India, Pakistan
and China are old allies.
Gwadar could eventually provide a base for Chinese
warships. Or it may be used as the starting point for a
pipeline travelling through Pakistan and carrying oil
and gas into China itself. If so, Beijing could import
energy from Africa and the Middle East using this route,
bypassing the Straits of Malacca.
The same rationale may explain China's actions on
India's eastern flank. A new port and pipeline terminal
are being constructed at Kyauk Phyu on Burma's island of
Ramree. This will be the starting point for a 900-mile
pipeline, able to carry oil directly to Kunming, the
capital of Yunnan province in southern China.
"They know that we could attempt to choke them
completely and that's why they want these ports," said
Vijay Kapoor, a retired general in New Delhi and former
commandant of the Indian Army War College. "Their aim in
all of this is to prevent us from being able to choke
them."
China's moves are being closely watched in India, where
the military establishment fears that Beijing's plans in
Pakistan and Burma amount to a deliberate strategy of
"encirclement". If China's navy acquires permanent bases
in the Indian Ocean, tension is likely to grow.
But Indian diplomats tend to believe these fears are
exaggerated. They believe that China is motivated by
nothing more than securing its economic boom and taking
normal precautions against unforeseeable events.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/2957578/India-targeting-Chinas-oil-supplies.html |
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